The Alarming Failure of Software Projects
The State of Wisconsin has announced the cancellation of yet another IT project. This project, according to the Wisconsin Technology Network was a $42 million project. Fortunately (I guess), they halted the project after wasting only $23.6 million on the project. This is on the heels of a failed project by the UW system that cost Wisconsin taxpayers $26 million over 5 years.
In his book Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art
| Size in Function Points (and Approximate Lines of Code) | Early | On Time | Late | Failed (Cancelled) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 FP (1,000 LOC) | 11% | 81% | 6% | 2% |
| 100 FP (10,000 LOC) | 6% | 75% | 12% | 7% |
| 1,000 FP (100,000 LOC) | 1% | 61% | 18% | 20% |
| 10,000 FP (1,000,000 LOC) | <1% | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| 100,000 FP (10,000,000 LOC) | 0% | 14% | 21% | 65% |
The alarming statistic is that a large project is much more likely to fail. I’ve had my issues with Getting Real, but I have to admit that a 92% success rate beats a 65% failure rate any day. I can only imagine the complexity of systems like the FBI’s Virtual Case File, that cost taxpayers $105 million dollars.
While most of these projects are killed before the whole budget is spent, the total is still more money than most of us will see in ten lifetimes. The worst part is that the only entity big enough to built software projects of 10 million lines of code is the government, and they spend our money, not their own.